Forecasting the Re-homing of Ebooks
How big the market to get e-books in the long-run:
293. 7 mil x 46. 7% back button 8% = 10. 973 million
(Total US human population x percentage of US human population reading literary works x Percentage of traditional paper books purchased on the net in 2003) It will take ten years to reach 95% penetration of the potential marketplace. Q2.
The long-run total adoption of ebooks would be 12. 973 mil. (Total ALL OF US population back button percentage individuals population reading literature back button Percentage of traditional daily news books bought online in 2003) Q3.
I really do expect the industry for ebooks tend to always be guided by simply imitators rather than innovators. Based on the table previously mentioned, I found the weighted normal for e-book of queen (0. 0684) is bigger than p (0. 2990). In addition , the word of mouth will take an important part in the re-homing of e-books. The information about the e-book from the innovators contribute much to the usage of e-books since persons tend to think twice to change their old reading habit. Q4.
12 months 1: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (0)][10. 973-0] = 0. 751 million 12 months 2: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (0. 751)][10. 973-0. 751] = 0. 908 million 12 months 3: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (1. 659)][10. 973-1. 659] sama dengan 1 . 059 million Season 4: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (2. 717)][10. 973-2. 717] sama dengan 1 . 176 million Season 5: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (3. 893)][10. 973-3. 893] = 1 . 235 million Q5.
The adoption of e-book will be very different from digital music received online. The adoption of e-books deal with more issues when comparing to the adoption of digital music. To most in the listeners, there is not much difference in experience between hearing a song from an iPod and a CD player. Consequently , they have a fairly low turning cost and more willing to transform their habits. On the contrary, to the majority of of the viewers, it is absolutely very different by reading a great e-book to reading a printed book. The feelings of holding a printed publication and flipping over a...
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